A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
